Photo: smart-lab.ru
International ratings agency S&P Global Ratings has revised Uzbekistan’s credit outlook from “stable” to “positive,” while affirming the country’s long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings at “BB-/B.”
The key drivers behind the improved outlook include:
✅ Sustained economic growth. Uzbekistan’s economy grew by 6.5 percent in 2024, and average annual GDP growth is projected at 5.6 percent for 2025–2028. Growth is supported by investment, domestic demand, remittances, and ongoing reforms.
✅ High gold prices. Favorable conditions in the global gold market are boosting exports and budget revenues, helping to strengthen foreign currency reserves.
✅ Fiscal consolidation. Measures such as raising energy tariffs and reducing subsidies are expected to shrink the budget deficit to an average of 3 percent of GDP in 2025–2028, down from 4.9 percent in 2023.
✅ Economic diversification. The government is actively investing in energy, transportation, telecommunications, agriculture, and tourism, while also expanding production of copper, gold, and uranium to strengthen its export base.
At the same time, the agency highlighted several risks and challenges:
▶️ Rising public and external debt. To fund major investment projects, the government is increasing borrowing. By 2028, net public debt is projected to reach 34 percent of GDP.
▶️ External imbalances. The current account deficit is expected to average 5.7 percent of GDP through 2028, with broader external imbalances reaching 6.2 percent of GDP by then.
▶️ Heavy reliance on commodity exports. Gold accounts for 38 percent of Uzbekistan’s goods exports, leaving the economy vulnerable to price fluctuations in global commodity markets.
▶️ Limited institutional flexibility. Despite reforms, decision-making remains highly centralized, and corruption levels remain high.
S&P expects the government to continue with reforms and fiscal consolidation efforts. A future upgrade of the credit rating will depend on further progress in structural reforms, improved oversight of state-owned enterprises, and a sustained reduction in the fiscal deficit.
ℹ️ Commenting on the improved outlook, presidential spokesperson Sherzod Asadov stated that thanks to the president’s leadership, Uzbekistan has become more attractive to foreign investors, fostering economic growth and improving quality of life. As head of the working group on sovereign credit rating enhancement, Asadov emphasized that recent gains must not only be preserved but also built upon—requiring sustained, coordinated effort from all stakeholders.
