Photo: ista.ac.at
Scientists from the Institute of Science and Technology Austria (ISTA), after conducting fieldwork in Tajikistan, have concluded that Pamir glaciers—long considered resistant to global warming—are now melting at an alarming rate. The findings were reported by Asia-Plus, citing an international research team.
The group installed a climate station on the Kyzylsu Glacier in the northwestern Pamirs, which allowed researchers to model the behavior of the entire watershed from 1999 to 2023. They found that since 2018, the glacier’s mass balance has shifted sharply due to reduced snow cover and a shortage of precipitation. It appears that a “point of no return” has been reached, triggering accelerated melting.
The average snowpack depth has decreased by 40 centimeters, while annual precipitation has dropped by 328 millimeters—about 28 percent below normal. As a result, the glacier is now melting eight times faster than it did before 2018.
Researchers say this trend undermines the so-called Pamir-Karakoram Anomaly, a phenomenon in which glaciers in Central Asia had maintained stability despite global warming. The development poses serious risks of river depletion, including the relatively water-rich Amu Darya. Loss of these water resources threatens the water security of millions, affecting irrigation, hydropower generation, and accelerating ecosystem degradation. Restoring balance, the scientists warn, will be impossible without large-scale climate action.
The study also found that ice melt does not compensate for water shortages in mountain rivers. Compared with 1999–2018, total runoff decreased by 189 millimeters. The share of glacial water rose from 19 percent to 31 percent, but this increase did not offset the deficit in precipitation.
Satellite data used by the scientists offer little reassurance. Climate models based on these observations show that declining snow and precipitation in the Pamirs is not unique to the Kyzylsu Glacier but represents a broader trend across the northwestern region.
Experts express deep concern that the rapid glacier retreat will not only create water shortages but could also destabilize climate security, with consequences extending far beyond Central Asia.
